A sailor has to judge the wind and a ski racer must judge the texture of the snow. In business and politics, and in many aspects of military strategy, most of the important judgments are about people, especially anticipating their actions and reactions. Judgment begins with knowing yourself, your abilities and biases. Then it extends to knowing other individuals. Much more complex is judgment about small groups and how they will react in response to information or challenges—the domain of many managers, trial lawyers, and platoon leaders. Finally, there is judgment about large groups of people and markets—the domain of marketing and advertising experts, corporate management, and political leadership.
Good judgment is hard to define and harder still to acquire. Certainly some part of good judgment seems to be innate, connected with having a balanced character and an understanding of other people. Still, I am convinced that judgment can be improved with practice. For that practice to be effective, you should first commit your judgments to writing.
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To commit to a judgment is to choose an interpretation of which issues are critical and which are not and then to choose an implied action. By committing to a judgment—especially a diagnosis—you increase the probability that you will disagree with some of the assessments of others, and thereby increase the chance of learning something.
The same principle applies to any meeting you attend. What issues do you expect to arise in the meeting? Who will take which position? Privately commit yourself in advance to some judgments about these issues, and you will have daily opportunities to learn, improve, and recalibrate your judgment.
Good Strategy Bad Strategy, by Richard Rumelt
